I consider the better player the one who performs consistently at a high level throughout their career against their peers, and Federer has simply done this more so than Rafa (to-date).
Rafa could surpass him, but it would be tremendous effort and somewhat unlikely - but possible.
Note last update of data on 2/6/13.
Overal performance
Grand Slam wins is definitely a component of it, but there are other data points we can look at as well.
Head-to-head
The argument against Federer as the better player is his poor head-to-head record against Nadal. Although important, there are few reasons why this is not enough to sway the argument. Head-to-head match-ups are one indicator in tennis, but not the only data point.
Overall: Nadal 18-10
Clay courts: Nadal 12–2
Overall Hard courts: Federer 6-5
- Indoor Hard courts: Federer 4-0
- Outdoor Hard courts: Nadal 5-2
Grass courts: Federer 2–1
Grand Slams: Nadal 8-2
Tour Finals: Federer 4-0
Master 1000's: Nadal 9-4
These numbers would be different if...
Additional reasons why head-to-head is not the final say...
Both guys are incredible athletes and competitors. It'll be interesting to see how Rafa responds now that there are visible chinks in his armor. Fed handled the transition extremely well.
We're definitely lucky to be able to watch their careers play out.
Rafa could surpass him, but it would be tremendous effort and somewhat unlikely - but possible.
Note last update of data on 2/6/13.
Overal performance
Grand Slam wins is definitely a component of it, but there are other data points we can look at as well.
- Slam wins (Roger 17 to Rafa 11)
- Slam final appearances (Roger 24 to Rafa 16)
- Semi final appearances (Roger 33 to Rafa 19)
- Consecutive semi final appearances (Roger 23 to Rafa 5) [arguably the greatest legacy Roger will leave]
- Consecutive quarter final appearances (Roger 35 to Rafa 11) - note this is still counting for Federer
- Masters 1000 wins (Roger 21 to Rafa 21)
- Weeks at Number 1 (Roger 302 to Rafa ?) - note I can't update this weekly, but feel free to add to it.
Head-to-head
The argument against Federer as the better player is his poor head-to-head record against Nadal. Although important, there are few reasons why this is not enough to sway the argument. Head-to-head match-ups are one indicator in tennis, but not the only data point.
Overall: Nadal 18-10
Clay courts: Nadal 12–2
Overall Hard courts: Federer 6-5
- Indoor Hard courts: Federer 4-0
- Outdoor Hard courts: Nadal 5-2
Grass courts: Federer 2–1
Grand Slams: Nadal 8-2
Tour Finals: Federer 4-0
Master 1000's: Nadal 9-4
These numbers would be different if...
- There were more grass tournaments. They only play on grass at Wimbledon (Fed play Halle and Rafa plays Queens - there is not chance for match then outside of the one grass slam).
- Federer was not the second best clay court player for the past 6 or 7 years. If he did not make it so far in all tournaments, hence having a chance to play Nadal, there would be way fewer wins on the Nadal side.
- Nadal was a better hard court player - especially earlier in his career. More chances to meet in the US hard court circuit would have added more wins to Federer.
Additional reasons why head-to-head is not the final say...
- Some guys style of play simply make them particularly difficult to beat for someone else. For instance a high bounce to the backhand side. They may perform well against them, but unless the perform as well against the field of players you can't assume they are the better overall player.
- Roger and Rafa are not exactly peers. There is a 5 year age difference, which in tennis is half a career. Federer's ability to stay fit (mentally and physically) has allowed him to stay competitive late into his career. His peers (like Hewitt and Roddick) go out way earlier and are considerably less consistent. His ability to stick around past his prime has given Nadal more wins.
Both guys are incredible athletes and competitors. It'll be interesting to see how Rafa responds now that there are visible chinks in his armor. Fed handled the transition extremely well.
We're definitely lucky to be able to watch their careers play out.
Comments